Across all age groups, hospitalization rates peaked in December 2020 and January 2021. The peaks varied by state and age group, with some states having multiple peaks that differed by timing and magnitude.
Ensemble forecasts, which combine diverse independent team forecasts, are predicting declines in new cases and hospitalizations this summer. However, rapid changes in trend can still occur.
1. Deaths
For the first time since the peak of last winter’s Omicron surge, death rates from Covid are declining nationwide. The number of Americans hospitalized each day with the virus is down from its 146,534-per-week high in mid-January to 80,185 the week ending Feb. 13.
But while deaths are trending down, they’re still too high for comfort. Public health experts say they are encouraged by the trend and believe that a combination of factors may be behind it. A post-holiday drop in travel and indoor gatherings, widespread mask wearing and a vaccine rollout have all played a role. However, many Americans haven’t received the updated mRNA vaccine, and some people continue to face challenges getting the shot, such as insurance coverage denials.
Another factor to consider is that “deaths” lag “hospitalizations.” Many of the deaths reported by CDC are in-hospital deaths. Out-of-hospital deaths are often undercounted, because coroners have less access to information about the deceased and might not include Covid-19 as a cause of death on the official cause of death report. Furthermore, some coroners might exclude COVID-19 from death certificates if they believe the virus was not the underlying cause of the person’s death or because family members request that it be left off.
Nevertheless, the overall trend of declining deaths is a hopeful sign that the country’s coronavirus pandemic might be nearing its end. It’s important to remember, though, that even if deaths are trending downward, it could take months for those numbers to reflect real changes in the health of the American public.
The CDC’s next weekly update on the Covid pandemic is expected to show that deaths have continued to decline in recent weeks, and the overall number of hospitalizations has also been dropping.
One group that has not seen the same drop in hospitalizations or death rates is African-Americans, who remain more than twice as likely to die from the disease as whites. This is largely because African-Americans are much more likely to be hospitalized with severe and life-threatening complications from the virus, such as pneumonia or respiratory failure.
2. Hospitalizations
Across the country, hospitals have been seeing fewer patients with coronavirus. The number of hospitalizations for the virus declined significantly this week, suggesting that the US is moving past the summer spike associated with the omicron strain’s rise to prominence. The decline is being fueled, at least in part, by herd immunity, as many people who would have been infected had they not received a vaccine are now immune from the disease.
While the decrease in hospitalizations is encouraging, experts say it is too soon to raise the banner of mission accomplished. They warn that hospitalization rates will likely increase again in fall and winter when the omicron strain is once again active, as it has been for almost all previous waves of the pandemic.
Hospitalizations are an important measure of the spread and severity of a disease, but they can be difficult to track. Because COVID-19 is a nationally notifiable disease, cases and hospitalizations are recorded and reported by states to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention through the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. However, the ability to identify and report every case is limited by available resources and logistical challenges. Additionally, surveillance systems may not be able to accurately capture hospitalizations for all patient populations, especially older adults.
To improve monitoring, the COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) has been operating since March 2020 to collect data on laboratory-confirmed omicron and delta variant infection from a sentinel network of hospitals in 14 states and territories. The model is based on the long-standing Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET), which has monitored population-based rates of influenza-related hospitalizations for almost 20 years.
This week’s national ensemble forecasts show that the daily rate of new hospitalizations will likely decrease in 1 jurisdiction, with stable or uncertain trends in the remaining state and territory-level ensemble forecasts. The national forecasts are based on a combination of 10 models, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction. Models vary in their assumptions about levels of social distancing and other interventions.
Below are the national ensemble projections for daily hospitalization rates by age group for the next four weeks, with 90% credible intervals. The state and territory-level forecasts are based on a combination model output and CDC’s Unified Hospital Timeseries data.
3. Cases
The number of new COVID-19 cases continues to decline across the country. The seven-day average of new coronavirus cases dropped below 15,000 for the first time since March, according to health officials. The decline comes after a six-week climb and is a clear sign that the worst days of the pandemic are over, though some experts say it’s too soon to celebrate.
The CDC’s sentinel surveillance system for COVID-19, which collects data on laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2-positive patients in hospitals in 14 states, has seen its hospitalization rates reach their highest levels at the end of December 2020 and again in January 2021, as reported by the Covid Tracking Project [7]. These hospitalization rates are comparable to those recorded during the previous peak in the flu pandemic in early 2016.
This week’s national ensemble forecasts predict that the national rate of new COVID-19 cases will continue to decrease or be stable in most jurisdictions. At the state- and territory level, the ensemble forecasts are expected to decrease in all but one jurisdiction. This is a change from last week, when it was predicted that the national rate would remain stable or increase in the same locations.
In Iowa, the number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations has been at its lowest level since August. In its weekly respiratory surveillance report, the CDC noted that there were 28 inpatients with the virus on any given day at Iowa hospitals last week, a drop from 47 the week before. This is a sign that the vaccines are working to halt the spread of the virus in the United States.
However, the CDC warned that the declining numbers should not be taken as a sign that the threat has been eradicated from the nation’s hospitals. In the future, the CDC will be looking to develop a more comprehensive and accurate system for tracking infections. This will likely involve the use of a more extensive network of hospitals and the ability to collect data on a much larger scale, according to the agency. This will allow the CDC to more accurately estimate the number of infections in different regions and age groups across the country.
4. Vaccinations
The number of new Covid cases peaked in early January 2021 and has been rapidly receding ever since. It’s important to remember that vaccines only became available at the end of December and it took a while for them to become effective. As a result, they can’t take full credit for the declines that we’ve seen since then.
That’s why it’s so important that the US continue to ramp up vaccination efforts and push for more widespread use of the vaccine, especially among the hardest-to-reach groups of people. This includes young children, who need two doses of the vaccine to have full protection. And it also includes women, who tend to be under-vaccinated due to cultural beliefs, a lack of access, and fears about safety.
During the week ending March 24, the number of infections, hospital admissions and deaths continued to decline nationwide, according to Johns Hopkins University. However, the country is still battling low vaccination rates and experts worry that cases could spike again as winter sets in.
As a reminder, CDC estimates that 82 million infections, 4.08 million hospitalizations and 798,040 deaths would have occurred without vaccination. That means that the vaccination campaign has saved over $1 trillion in medical costs by avoiding the need for treatment.
In addition to pushing for more vaccinations, it’s crucial that people comply with recommendations to wear masks and stay away from crowded places, to test for and treat the virus if they are infected, and to get a boost shot if they haven’t already. Unfortunately, surveys have indicated that there are some people who remain adamantly opposed to the vaccine, as well as others who don’t think they’ll benefit from it.
States with a higher rate of previous Covid-19 infections have had much more difficult times achieving low new case rates and may have seen a slowdown in the spring, even after boosting their vaccination rates. This is because those states experienced their highest number of new cases before the vaccine became available and their rates declined from a much higher peak. The rest of the states, on the other hand, had lower rates of previous Covid-19 infections and therefore had much easier time achieving a rapid decline in their new case numbers.
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