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Is a Hamas-Israel Cease-Fire Near?

Is a Hamas-Israel Cease-Fire Near?
Is a Hamas-Israel Cease-Fire Near?

Seven months into the conflict, there is no end in sight. Hamas has yet to respond definitively to new terms proposed by mediators and accepted by Israel.

President Biden spoke to Netanyahu to stress US concerns about an invasion of Gaza’s densely populated Rafah refugee camp. But it is not clear whether he can change Netanyahu’s mind.

1. Hamas’s Response to US-Backed Ceasefire Proposal

Hamas says it has given mediators a response to a US-backed proposal that opens a “wide pathway” to reach an agreement. But the terrorist group’s request for some “amendments” seems short of a clear acceptance that the White House has been pushing for.

The actual Israeli proposal — reportedly lengthier than the summary presented by Biden — has not been made public, so it’s not clear whether the Hamas response is significantly different. But the foreign ministries of Egypt and Qatar, which have been key players alongside the US in the Gaza talks, both confirmed that they had received Hamas’ response and were studying it.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was on a mission to push the proposal forward, visiting Israel and Egypt. He met with the families of the American hostages, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other Israeli officials. He also visited a hospital where wounded soldiers were being treated.

The American administration believes that it’s in Israel’s best interests to strike a deal with Hamas before the situation worsens. It’s unclear how long Israel can sustain a war in Gaza without draining its financial, military and human resources. And an indefinite war in pursuit of a mythical notion of “total victory” will not bring the hostages home or lead to a more secure Israel.

2. Israel’s Response to Hamas’s Response to US-Backed Ceasefire Proposal

The US secretary of state, John Blinken, is on his eighth trip to the Middle East since the start of the war. He arrived in Qatar on Tuesday, seeking to push the Israelis and Hamas toward a truce that would lead to a prisoner swap. He met with Qatari officials and the prime minister, who called for the war to end as quickly as possible.

He also addressed Israel’s opposition to a proposal that would allow Gazans more freedom of movement, and he warned that a failure to reach an agreement would have consequences for Netanyahu’s coalition. The government could be forced to dissolve and new elections could be held if the conflict does not end soon, he said.

It took Hamas 12 days to respond to the outline of a deal that US President Joe Biden outlined when he visited the region earlier this month. And in that time, more people suffered.

Sources close to the negotiations have told CNN that Egyptian intelligence changed the terms of the original framework, scuttling a deal and leaving the ceasefire talks at an impasse. The sources say senior Hamas negotiators were unaware of the changes.

Several Israeli communities remain under rocket fire from Hezbollah in Lebanon. But firefighters have managed to bring most of the blazes under control. And, at the end of the day, calls from the international community to stop the fighting — like the one delivered by Congress on Friday — may actually do more harm than good.

3. Israel’s Response to Hamas’s Response to US-Backed Ceasefire Proposal

A short Israeli communication, attributed to an Israeli government official but widely interpreted as the PM’s office, made it clear that Israel will not end its campaign until it has achieved all its war aims. This includes destroying Hamas’ military and governing capabilities, freeing all the hostages and ensuring that Gaza does not pose a threat to Israel in future.

The US ambassador to Israel, Antony Blinken, is putting pressure on both Netanyahu and the far right members of his coalition government to accept a deal with Hamas. But the latter see any compromise as surrender and are threatening to leave the government, ending Netanyahu’s long tenure as Israel’s leader.

Hamas wants written guarantees from the US that a permanent ceasefire will be followed by a withdrawal of Israel forces, according to two Egyptian security sources. This is a major hurdle, as is the fact that Israel has not been willing to negotiate any terms with Hamas other than those of the immediate war.

However, it seems unlikely that this will derail a potential deal. Both sides are desperate for a way out of the crisis and a peace agreement will be a significant step in that direction. It will simply take one side to offer something that the other can’t refuse. Then the two can move forward to negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and building a viable Palestinian state.

4. Israel’s Response to Hamas’s Response to US-Backed Ceasefire Proposal

Israel’s response to Hamas’s tepid public acceptance of a US-backed ceasefire proposal is likely to have the opposite of the desired effect. Rather than making the war more likely to end, it will increase the pressure on Israel to destroy Hamas’s military and governance capacities as quickly as possible. This is a dangerous dynamic that will make any negotiated peace more difficult to achieve.

The plan first laid out by President Biden and later endorsed by the United Nations Security Council offers a framework for a ten-day pause in hostilities to begin July 20. In exchange for a halt to fighting, Israel would release up to 33 of the group’s dead Israeli hostages and open its crossing points to allow 30% more goods to flow into Gaza. Hamas has signaled that it would accept this plan, but has not publicly committed to it.

Despite Israel’s tepid response to the plan, the United States is continuing to press for an end to the conflict. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently on a diplomatic tour of the region aimed at securing a deal.

Despite the political challenges, it is important for the US to continue to push for an end to the war. The call for a ceasefire, rather than simply a short pause in the fighting, is a mistake. It is unlikely to change Israeli policy and could actually have the opposite of the intended effect by increasing the pressure on Israel to go all out while it can and to defeat Hamas.

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